I’m going to say something that might piss off a few people in Silicon Valley. Most of what you’re seeing in humanoid robotics right now is total bullshit.
There, I said it. All those slick videos of robots doing backflips or making coffee? Mostly just expensive PR stunts. They look great on a demo day stage, but they’re a million miles away from being a real, viable product. I’ve seen this movie before, and I know how it ends.
Back in 2018, I got pitched by a robotics startup—I won’t name them, but they were hot at the time. They had a robot that could supposedly do your laundry. The demo was flawless. It picked up a t-shirt, folded it perfectly, and placed it in a basket. I was impressed. I wrote them a check for $250,000. Six months later, the company was dead.
What went wrong? It turned out their "laundry-folding" robot could only fold that one specific t-shirt, in that one specific lighting condition, on that one specific table. It couldn’t handle a sock, a pair of jeans, or even a slightly wrinkled version of the same shirt. It was a one-trick pony, a carefully choreographed illusion. They had built a demo, not a product.
This is the trap that 99% of robotics founders fall into. They get so obsessed with creating a "wow" moment that they forget to build a business. They’re chasing the sci-fi dream of a general-purpose robot that can do everything, and they’re completely missing the massive opportunities right in front of them.
The Reality of Robotics in 2026
Let’s get real for a second. We are not on the verge of having C-3PO in our homes. The idea of a general-purpose humanoid robot that can navigate the chaos of a human environment is still decades away. The technical challenges are immense. We’re talking about everything from power consumption and battery life to the sheer complexity of dynamic, unstructured environments.
Think about your own kitchen. Now think about programming a robot to navigate it. There are chairs, tables, maybe a dog running around. The floor might be slippery. The lighting changes throughout the day. A human can handle this with ease, but for a robot, it’s a nightmare. Every variable has to be accounted for. It’s a combinatorial explosion of possibilities.
And that’s just navigation. What about manipulation? The human hand is a marvel of engineering. It can pick up a grape without crushing it and a bowling ball without dropping it. Replicating that level of dexterity is one of the hardest problems in robotics. Most of the robot hands you see today are clumsy and limited. They can’t handle the variety of objects and tasks that a human can.
This is why I’m so skeptical of the "general-purpose" approach. It’s a recipe for disaster. You end up with a robot that can do a lot of things poorly and nothing well. It’s a jack-of-all-trades and a master of none. And in the world of business, that’s a death sentence.
Where the Real Opportunity Lies
So, am I a robotics pessimist? Far from it. I’m incredibly bullish on the future of robotics. I’ve put my money where my mouth is, with investments in companies like Figure AI. But I’m a realist. I know that the path to success in robotics is not through flashy demos and sci-fi dreams. It’s through a relentless focus on specific, high-value applications.
Instead of trying to build a robot that can do everything, the smart founders are building robots that can do one thing exceptionally well. They’re targeting structured environments where the variables are controlled and the tasks are repetitive. I’m talking about places like warehouses, factories, and hospitals.
The Warehouse Revolution
Take warehouses, for example. They are the perfect environment for robotics. They’re huge, structured spaces with predictable layouts. The tasks are highly repetitive: picking, packing, sorting, and moving. And there’s a massive labor shortage in the logistics industry. This is a multi-trillion dollar market just waiting to be disrupted.
We’re already seeing a huge wave of innovation in warehouse robotics. Companies are building autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) that can navigate warehouses and transport goods. They’re developing robotic arms that can pick and place items with incredible speed and accuracy. These are not general-purpose robots. They are highly specialized machines designed for a specific set of tasks. And they are already delivering massive value to companies like Amazon and Walmart.
The Future of Surgery
Another area where I see huge potential is surgical robotics. The operating room is another highly controlled environment. The tasks are precise and require superhuman levels of accuracy and stability. This is where robots can truly shine.
Surgical robots like the da Vinci system have been around for years, but we’re still in the early days of this revolution. The next generation of surgical robots will be smaller, more precise, and more autonomous. They will be able to perform complex procedures with minimal human intervention. This will not only improve patient outcomes but also make surgery more accessible and affordable.
Why I’m Betting on Figure AI
This brings me to Figure AI. I’m an investor in Figure, and I’m incredibly excited about what they’re building. But it’s not for the reasons you might think. I’m not betting on them to build a robot that can do my laundry. I’m betting on them because they are taking a smart, pragmatic approach to building a humanoid robot company.
Figure is not trying to boil the ocean. They are starting with a specific, high-value application: warehouse automation. They are building a humanoid robot that is designed to work alongside humans in a warehouse environment. It will be able to perform tasks like unloading trucks, moving boxes, and stocking shelves.
This is a brilliant strategy for a few reasons. First, it targets a massive and growing market. Second, it allows them to focus on a limited set of tasks in a semi-structured environment. This makes the technical challenges much more manageable. Third, it provides a clear path to revenue and profitability. They don’t need to wait for the sci-fi dream to become a reality. They can start delivering value to customers today.
What’s more, the team at Figure is world-class. They have some of the brightest minds in robotics and AI, with decades of combined experience from places like Boston Dynamics and Tesla. They understand the challenges and they have a clear vision for how to solve them.
My Advice to Founders
So, if you’re a founder in the robotics space, here’s my advice to you: stop chasing the hype. Stop trying to build the next Asimo. Instead, focus on solving a real-world problem for a specific customer. Find a niche where you can build a robot that is 10x better than any existing solution.
Start with a structured environment. Prove that you can deliver value in that environment. Then, and only then, should you start thinking about expanding to more complex and unstructured environments. This is not the sexiest approach, but it’s the one that will actually work.
The future of robotics is not about building a single, all-powerful robot. It’s about building a diverse ecosystem of specialized robots that work together to solve a wide range of problems. The founders who understand this are the ones who will build the next generation of great robotics companies. And those are the companies I’m looking to invest in.
Frequently Asked Questions
How has this view evolved over time?
My thinking on most topics has changed significantly over the years. Early in my career, I held many conventional views that experience proved wrong. I try to update my beliefs when the evidence changes.
What experience informs this perspective?
This perspective comes from over a decade of building companies in Silicon Valley, two successful exits (RemoteTeam to Gusto, MovieLaLa to Gfycat), and investing in 200+ startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Scale AI. I write about what I've lived.
What's the most common pushback you get on this?
People often push back by citing exceptions or edge cases. And they're usually right that exceptions exist. But building a strategy around exceptions rather than patterns is a losing game for most founders.
Do all experts agree with this view?
No, and that's fine. The best ideas in business are often contrarian. I share my perspective based on my experience and data, but I encourage you to seek out opposing viewpoints and form your own conclusions.