I almost gave up on the most common lies founders tell themselves about entirely. Then something clicked that changed my whole approach.
I wanted to share my perspective on this. Founders are experts at self-deception, especially when it comes to market size. I'll expose the most common lies and cognitive biases that lead to unrealistic projections and how to ground your numbers in reality.
The Counterintuitive Truth
Here's what surprised me most about the most common lies founders tell themselves about: the best practitioners do less, not more.
When I was building MovieLaLa, we tried to do everything at once. We had the best technology, the smartest team, and we still almost failed because we spread ourselves too thin.
The lesson I took from that experience, and from watching hundreds of other companies, is that timing is everything in this game. It sounds simple. It's incredibly hard to execute.
The Reality Nobody Talks About
Most people approach the most common lies founders tell themselves about with assumptions that made sense five years ago. The world has moved on. When I look at my portfolio companies, the ones that succeed are doing something fundamentally different.
The first thing to understand is that the best solutions are often the simplest ones. I've seen this play out across dozens of companies. The pattern is unmistakable.
At RemoteTeam, we learned this the hard way. We spent months going down the wrong path before realizing that customer feedback is the only metric that matters. Once we made the switch, everything changed.
What I've Learned From 101 Companies
After investing in 200+ startups and running two companies to successful exits, I've developed a pretty clear picture of what works with the most common lies founders tell themselves about.
The biggest misconception is that you need to customer feedback is the only metric that matters. That's backwards. The companies that win are the ones that your team matters more than your technology.
I remember sitting with the Anthropic team early on and discussing how they thought about the most common lies founders tell themselves about. Their approach was counterintuitive but brilliant.
The AI Angle
I can't talk about the most common lies founders tell themselves about in 2026 without mentioning AI. As someone who's invested in Anthropic, OpenAI, Scale AI, and Hugging Face, I have a front-row seat to how AI is transforming this space.
The short version: AI makes good practitioners better and bad practitioners worse. It's an amplifier, not a replacement.
I've seen companies use AI to 10x their the most common lies founders tell themselves about capabilities. I've also seen companies waste millions on AI solutions that solved the wrong problem. The difference comes down to understanding what you're actually trying to achieve.
This connects to broader themes around AI talent wars, AI due diligence, AI startup pivots, AI exit strategies that I've been thinking about a lot lately.
What's Next
The world of the most common lies founders tell themselves about is moving fast. What worked last year might not work next year. That's both the challenge and the opportunity.
My advice: stay curious, stay humble, and stay close to the people who are actually doing the work. Read less thought leadership and do more experiments. Talk to fewer consultants and more practitioners.
And if you're a founder building in this space, remember that the best time to get the most common lies founders tell themselves about right is before you need to. Don't wait for a crisis to force your hand.
I'll keep sharing what I learn. This stuff matters too much to keep to myself.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do all experts agree with this view?
No, and that's fine. The best ideas in business are often contrarian. I share my perspective based on my experience and data, but I encourage you to seek out opposing viewpoints and form your own conclusions.
How can I apply this thinking to my own situation?
Start by identifying the core principle behind the opinion, not the specific example. Then ask yourself: does this principle apply to my context? If yes, test it in a small, low-risk way before going all in.
What's the most common pushback you get on this?
People often push back by citing exceptions or edge cases. And they're usually right that exceptions exist. But building a strategy around exceptions rather than patterns is a losing game for most founders.
What experience informs this perspective?
This perspective comes from over a decade of building companies in Silicon Valley, two successful exits (RemoteTeam to Gusto, MovieLaLa to Gfycat), and investing in 200+ startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Scale AI. I write about what I've lived.